Researchers and scientists have warned that between now and 2027, there is a 66% chance that we will go over the 1.5ᴼC global warming threshold. They have suggested that, although this is alarming, it may only be temporary.

66% chance that we will go over
the 1.5ᴼC global warming threshold

The warning comes from emissions being released by our human activities and from an expected El Nino which will bring about a warm phase in the summer months.

The breaking of the limit will be a sign that the effects of global warming are speeding up, instead of slowing down. This breach of the limit must not become a regular occurrence as it will begin to cause detrimental impacts on the planet.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 196 parties in attendance of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21), agreed to limit the global rise in temperature to 1.5ᴼC. In 2020, the World Meteorological Organisation estimated that there was a less than 20% chance of the global temperature breaking the 1.5ᴼC limit within a five-year time period.

In 2022, this rose to 50%, and now in 2023, this has reached 66%. Showing it has more than tripled in the last 3 years. Scientists have warned that this 66% means that the chances of breaking the limit are ‘more likely than not’.

Professor Adam Scaife, the Head of Long-Range Prediction at the Met Office has stated that this is a worrying time as “it’s the first time in history” that the temperature is going past this limit.

Chief Scientist and Policy Director at Greenpeace UK, Doug Parr has claimed that:

“This report must be a rallying cry to intensify
global efforts to tackle the climate crisis.”